Beijing -LRB- CNN -RRB- -- Jobs and money , national identity and political stability .

These are some of the contentious issues driving the presidential election in Taiwan this weekend .

Seeking another four-year term is the incumbent president Ma Ying Jeou of the ruling Kuomintang Party , pitted against Tsai Ing-wen , leader of the Democratic Progressive Party -LRB- DPP -RRB- .

Who wins the election will influence Taiwan 's relations with mainland China and impact business , geopolitics and security in the region , including China-U.S. ties .

For many Taiwanese electorates , political observers say , the main issues are jobs , economics and Taiwanese identity .

For the policy-makers in Beijing , however , the overriding question is whether the next Taiwan president will stick to the status quo .

That means abiding by the `` 1992 Consensus , '' a tacit and ambiguous agreement reached 20 years ago between Beijing and Taipei under which both sides agreed on the principle of `` one China '' without agreeing on how it is to be defined or interpreted .

Despite the ambiguity , the 1992 Consensus has served as the basis for cross-strait dialogue that has led in recent years to the unprecedented blossoming of economic and people-to-people ties across the Taiwan Strait .

In Beijing 's view , `` zuguo tongyi , '' or reunification of the motherland , is a matter of national pride and iron-clad policy .

Beijing says it prefers to do so peacefully but refuses to rule out the use of force to keep Taiwan from declaring itself a separate state .

China keeps hundreds of missiles aimed at Taiwan , an ominous threat to the island to stay in the fold .

War in the Taiwan Strait would prompt a China-U.S. standoff .

In 1954 , the U.S. and Taiwan signed a mutual defense treaty . Even now , Washington sells Taiwan advanced jet fighters and other military hardware .

America is also bound by the Taiwan Relations Act , U.S. legislation passed in 1979 , to consider an attack on the island as `` a threat to the peace and security '' of the region and `` of grave concern to the U.S. ''

But all these years , Washington has avoided spelling out what it would do in case military clash erupts in the Taiwan Strait .

Some observers say such ambiguity serves as a deterrent . Others worry it could lead to miscalculations .

That delicate balance lurks at the heart of this weekend 's election .

Incumbent president Ma Ying Jeou advocates maintaining the status quo . `` Ma Ying Jeou will continue the 1992 Consensus , '' says Tsinghua University professor Yan Xuetong .

`` If he does that we can maintain the current relationship across the Strait . ''

If Ma wins , says Wang Jianmin , a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences -LRB- CASS -RRB- in Beijing , `` we can hopefully keep the ` peaceful development ' scenario with the mutual trust based on the 1992 Consensus . ''

Beijing 's policy-makers are wary of Tsai Ing-wen , suspecting her of pushing a pro-independence agenda . Tsai for one rejects the 1992 Consensus and instead calls for a yet undefined `` Taiwan Consensus . ''

Jia Qingling , a top communist party official who oversees Taiwan affairs , recently warned : `` If we deny the status quo there is no way to carry on any further negotiations , and what we have achieved so far would be in vain . We would go back to the days of chaos and uncertainty . ''

But Wang believes relations between Beijing and Taipei will see a drastic change if DPP gets elected .

`` There is no way China will keep the current level of talks if Taiwan claims itself to be a country , '' he says . `` If so , Taiwan 's economy will certainly decline if the life blood from the mainland gets cut off . ''

But Tsinghua 's Yan Xuetong downplays any worst-case scenarios . `` Even if Tsai Ing Wen wins the election , she will adopt a moderate policy to mainland China , '' he opines .

There are good reasons not to rock the boat , mostly money .

Closer ties between Taiwan and the mainland , observers say , have brought significant `` peace dividends '' to both sides -- robust business and trade , tourism , academic and people-to-people exchanges and family reunions .

Two-way trade last year topped U.S. $ 160 billion , according to estimates by China 's customs bureau .

Over the years , Taiwanese investors , big and small , have pumped billions of dollars of investment into China .

Last year alone , they invested over U.S. $ 12 billion in 520 projects on the mainland , according to a report by the state-run Xinhua new agency .

Mainland companies , on the other hand , invested U.S. $ 174 million into over 200 projects in Taiwan in the short time since Taiwan allowed mainland investments in June 2009 , Xinhua said .

Since Taiwan opened its borders to mainland tourists three-and-a-half years ago , says Shao Qiwei , head of China 's tourism agency , over three million mainlanders have visited the island . Last year alone , 1.8 million joined tours or went as individual travelers , Shao added .

In contrast , about five million Taiwanese tourists visited the mainland last year , according to National Tourism Administration .

But for the Communist leadership in Beijing closer ties also poses a downside : they bring a democratic contagion to the mainland .

On Sina Weibo , China 's equivalent of Twitter , Linghutian writes : `` No matter who wins , it 's the victory of Taiwan 's voters and the democracy they 've been practicing . We mainlanders should just stay calm and learn something , since we now ca n't really do much . ''

While the Taiwanese electorate is able to directly elect their president and other leaders this weekend , China 's political elite is still struggling behind closed doors to reach a consensus on who among them will take top positions ahead of the major political transition later this year .

In the autumn , Vice President Xi Jinping , 58 , is expected to replace 69-year-old Hu Jintao as party chief when the Communist Party holds its national congress -- an event that takes place every five years . Xi is expected to formally ascend as state president when China 's legislature convenes in the spring of 2013 .

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Incumbent president Ma Ying Jeou of the ruling Kuomintang Party seeking another four-year term

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Tsai Ing-wen , leader of the Democratic Progressive Party -LRB- DPP -RRB- , would be the first female president

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China keeps hundreds of missiles aimed at Taiwan , an ominous threat to the island to stay in the fold

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Beijing wary of Tsai Ing-wen , suspecting her of pushing a pro-independence agenda